Plate Price Research Abroad: Hong Kong, Malaysia, UK, Dubai
Econometric research from Hong Kong and Malaysia plus the UK and Dubai markets: how 8, 4, wording and beliefs set plate prices, and what applies to Thailand.
Published 3 October 2026
Contents
Why look at research from other countries
We have found no Thai econometric research that estimates a price equation for license plates. A 2015 Burapha University study of 121 transport officials in Chonburi looked at their behaviour in taking part in auctions, not at prices, and its variables explained 19 percent of that behaviour. Plate valuation in Thailand therefore still relies on comparable data and judgement.
The plate markets of Hong Kong, Malaysia, the United Kingdom and Dubai have large volumes of past auction results, so economists can measure what raises prices. Some of the lessons apply to Thailand, but differences in culture and purchasing power call for care, and this review found no econometric work from China or Taiwan.
Hong Kong: belief can be measured in numbers
Woo and Kwok (1994) was the first study to measure the value of vanity and belief in plate auction prices. Later, Woo, Horowitz, Luk and Lai (2008) used data from 348 auction rounds between 1990 and 2005 and found that the digit 8 and lucky homophones raise prices, while the digit 4 lowers them. Ng, Chong and Du (2010), using data from 292 rounds, found that the value of belief is economically significant and rises when the economy is weak.
Examples from the Hong Kong dataset cited in Chow's work: the plate 12 sold for about US$910,256 in 2005, while the median price of the whole dataset was only US$641. The plate 168 had an average price of US$10,094 and 888 averaged US$4,105, while 5888 averaged only US$342. These differences show that a small number of digits is an important variable, and numbers that look equally lucky can differ greatly in price when their digit counts differ.
Hong Kong personalised plates: message clarity matters more than belief
Woo and colleagues, in Applied Economics Letters (2021), studied 30,054 Hong Kong personalised plates from 134 auction rounds between 2006 and 2018. They found that message clarity (coefficient 1.196), emotion (0.490) and humour (0.441) carry more weight than belief (0.0832). The researchers concluded that the premium buyers are willing to pay for vanity, positive attitude and belief is relatively small.
For Thailand, this is one reason why lucky word plates that read clearly and carry a meaning that suits the buyer, such as รวย (rich) or รักคุณ (love you), can close at high prices, while word plates whose meaning buyers do not connect with do not fetch the same price. This conclusion is an analogy drawn from the Hong Kong study, not a measurement in Thailand.
Malaysia: peer effects and resale
Wong, Abdullah and Lim, in the Singapore Economic Review (2019), studied Malaysian vehicle plate auctions and found that Chinese bidders pay a premium for lucky numbers, while non-Chinese bidders do not pay a premium for lucky numbers but apply the same discount for unlucky numbers as Chinese bidders. They also found peer group effects.
The lesson is that other people's beliefs set your resale price, even if you do not share them. So consider the next buyer, not just your own beliefs.
Price models: AI compared with traditional equations
Chow's study (arXiv 1701.08711) used 50,698 Hong Kong plates from 1997 to 2010 to compare a deep RNN model with hedonic models built following Woo and colleagues (2008) and Ng and colleagues (2010). The test set R squared of the deep RNN was 0.8171, compared with 0.6983 and 0.6840 respectively.
The limitation to remember is that the model consistently underestimated the prices of the most expensive plates, and retraining the model every year reduced RMSE by 8.6 percent, consistent with the fact that the market changes over time. Top plates have a large unexplained component, so they should be valued as a wide range. This site's price calculator compares prices within a comparable plates group and then adjusts for series differences using ratios derived from listed prices. It is not a full econometric model and does not claim the same accuracy as in the research.
The United Kingdom and Dubai
The United Kingdom lets you search past auction results back to 1989. A database like this makes valuation by price comparison straightforward. Thailand has Department of Land Transport auction results published round by round. This site shows the auction closing prices we have collected separately from asking prices, and does not combine them in calculations.
Dubai shows that a plate market is tied to local wealth, and the highest prices often come from charity or status display, so foreign statistics should not be used to predict Thai prices.
| Market | How plates are sold | Costs to know | Notable figures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hong Kong | Ascending bid auctions and online (4 to 8 December 2025); reserve price HK$1,000 for ordinary plates and HK$5,000 for personalised plates; must be registered to a vehicle within 12 months | Pay immediately | Plate W about HK$26 million (2021), plate R HK$25.5 million (2023), plate D HK$20.2 million (2024) |
| United Kingdom (DVLA) | 7-day online auctions starting at £70; fixed-price sales from £250; V750 certificate valid for 10 years | 20 percent VAT, a buyer's fee (7 percent per the September 2025 notice, but the help page says 3 percent) and an £80 transfer fee | Past auction results searchable back to 1989 |
| Dubai (RTA) | Open auctions of 90 plates per round, with an AED 25,000 guarantee cheque | VAT | Auction 120 (27 December 2025) totalled AED 109.03 million; plate BB 12 at AED 9.66 million; plate DD 5 at AED 35 million (charity auction, 2025) |
How far it applies to Thailand
The conclusions that can be applied are these: the number of digits, repeated digits and meaningful homophones explain most of the price; top numbers have a large unexplained component, so a wide price range is needed; old data must be adjusted for time; and belief can be measured but is a small premium compared with clarity and rarity.
The conclusions from Hong Kong and Malaysia come from settings where many buyers are Chinese, so readers in Thailand should use them as supporting ideas, not as figures to predict prices. Building a price model for Thailand would require auction results for each number, with the date, province, vehicle type, series, starting price, number of bids and whether it sold, starting with a logarithmic equation before considering more complex methods.
Numbers mentioned in this article
FAQ on this topic
Does the digit 8 really raise a plate's price?
In Hong Kong, research found that the digit 8 raises prices significantly. In Thailand, the digit 9 is popular among Thais and the digit 8 among Thai Chinese, but no Thai research has measured the size of the premium yet. An auction result you can look at is 9กก 8888, which closed at ฿8,888,888 in December 2022.
Can AI value a license plate?
Hong Kong research found that a deep RNN model is more accurate than traditional hedonic equations, but it underestimates the most expensive plates and needs a large volume of auction results for each number, and Thailand does not yet have a public database like that. For now, the reliable method is to compare with similar plates and summarise as a price range.
Why not compare Thai plates with prices from abroad?
Because each market is tied to the wealth and culture of local buyers. The top prices in Dubai or Hong Kong cannot tell you what a Thai plate should cost. They are only useful as ideas about what raises or lowers prices.
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Numerology readings are a matter of personal belief. Please use your own judgement. They are not a guarantee of any outcome.